The future of emergency management (EM) is changing fast – and so is the science and technology to protect it. More frequent and intense disasters put pressure on emergency managers and emergency operations centers (EOCs) to share and analyze data faster than ever before and with more reliability and defensibility. In an era of technology innovation, emerging and advanced capabilities like artificial intelligence (AI) can enable better and faster decision-making that saves lives.
However, with new technology comes new challenges. The path to new solutions – even the first step to explore what is on the market – can be overwhelming. Further, no single entity coordinates and disseminates new or breakthrough EM research. Addressing this gap requires a well-articulated vision, a coordinated research program, and strategic investments. A project launched in 2023 with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) is helping sift through the expansive landscape of emerging technology, and EM needs to prioritize research and development requirements and inform future investments for EM.
Setting Sights on the Future
Over the past year, S&T has partnered with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to execute the Emergency Management of Tomorrow Research (EMOTR) Program to:
- Assess the EM research landscape;
- Assess the AI research landscape;
- Elicit capability needs from EM stakeholders;
- Conduct validation exercises; and
- Identify where technology, such as AI, may benefit the EOC of the Future.
Together, these efforts are navigating the complexities of EM and AI to identify emerging trends, potential challenges, and strategic pathways to guide future investments based on current assessments and projected needs. The results – recommendations informed by practitioners and research and development (R&D) – will spotlight EM capability needs and potential technology to close the gaps.
Navigating the Deep, Broad Seas of EM R&D
Navigating the wealth of EM research can seem insurmountable, as thousands of research institutions worldwide are leading disparate and sometimes duplicative efforts. Identifying relevant, overlapping, and complementary research topics in EM can promote transparency and encourage collaboration in the EM research community. PNNL approached the future of EM like any scientific experiment – with a research question: “What R&D is currently funded that addresses EM capability needs?”
Beginning in late 2023, PNNL developed a landscape assessment of EM R&D at U.S. academic institutions, national laboratories, and other research institutes and curated a comprehensive framework of trends, gaps, and overlaps. Analysts used a suite of research databases, key search terms, and analytical tools to filter 36,000 journal articles and 1,600 patent publications to a manageable dataset of 300-plus peer-reviewed and open-source publications (years 2008-2023) captured in an annotated bibliography. The annotated bibliography is formatted in a sortable spreadsheet that allows EM personnel to review recent research in terms of capability needs identified through EMOTR outreach and literature reviews, including data integration and communication, pandemic response, resource management, and threat and hazard detection. (The bibliography is available by request at emotr@pnnl.gov.)
Defining and Refining EM R&D Needs
Every good literature review needs validation – concurrence from credible sources that its findings are an accurate reflection of the field. To that end, the EMOTR team connected with EM personnel and first responders nationwide both virtually and in-person through interviews, focus groups, surveys, and conferences to validate the landscape assessment and capture additional EM-focused capability gaps. These efforts are building an understanding of the current state of information sharing, evaluating the efficiency of current research programs in closing EM capability gaps, and encouraging community coordination to inform overall efficacy of EM research investments.
Through these structured engagements, EM practitioners of all backgrounds and jurisdictions shared perspectives on EM-related technologies and operations, how they are evolving, and how they might impact the homeland security enterprise. The analysis of these EM R&D needs and priorities highlighted areas of research underrepresented in the current research ecosystem that are fit for EM community coordination. In particular, the following were recurring concerns and interests:
- Technology and technical capabilities – EOCs must harness real-time data streams from various sources (e.g., sensors, social media, satellite imagery) to enhance situational awareness and facilitate rapid decision-making.
- Structure and organization – EM must balance hybrid operations and overcome challenges in interoperability, flexibility, and scalability.
- Policy and operations – Information sharing, resource management, and situational awareness are a priority but face policy, funding, privacy, and trust barriers.
- Research and development – Human-centric R&D can explore balancing the psychological impacts of high-stress environments and decision-making with AI tools.
Taking AI to Task in EM
Determining AI’s role in all of this is where it all comes together – the landscape assessment, outreach, and analyses have convened to address the question: “What EM functions can technology – including AI – realistically address?” Through a structured evaluation of the AI and EM landscape and by connecting with subject matter experts to identify areas of synergy and barriers to implementation, a team of analysts, systems engineers, and researchers sought to evaluate and prioritize technologies that will have the most positive benefit to the EM domain. An EM task analysis looked at how AI and other disruptive technologies can benefit the tasks in most need, such as providing greater situational awareness and improving planning, training, response, and risk mitigation. Ultimately, 13 technologies were identified to have a high probability of enhancing EM in the next decade.
To explore these technology and task trends in real-world scenarios, a series of roundtables and tabletop exercises across the nation, in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Washington State, took a deeper dive into the future. The exercises convened emergency managers and first responders with diverse backgrounds; federal, state, and local EOC stakeholders; and academic researchers to assess the impacts and benefits of emerging technologies on EM organizations via real-world scenarios, hazards, and injects. Together, this feedback and R&D coalesced into a series of recommendations and priorities for the EOC of the Future, with a focus on:
- AI, automation, and human-machine teaming;
- Data and information sharing;
- Situational awareness;
- Technology integration and interoperability;
- Virtual capacity scaling; and
- Workforce development.
Connecting the Dots From AI to EM
Today, PNNL researchers are actively sharing their findings at conferences nationwide and welcome continued input and engagement to hone their focus as they build an actionable R&D agenda to benefit EM and the EOC of the Future for years to come. The December edition of the Domestic Preparedness Journal includes a diverse cohort of thought leaders and practitioners – a mix of government, academia, and industry – to discuss how new science and technology can support the emergency manager’s responsibilities and assess how future technology can be leveraged to empower the EM community of tomorrow.
Dan Cotter
Dan Cotter is the Executive Director for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) Office of Science and Engineering. His prior positions with S&T include serving as the Director of Support to the Homeland Security Enterprise and First Responders Group. Before joining S&T, Cotter held positions as the DHS Chief Technology Officer and as the DHS Geospatial Management Officer. His public sector experience also includes twelve years with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Cotter’s private sector experience includes acting as the Geospatial Information Technologies Manager for a large engineering firm, as the President of an airborne light detection and ranging company, and as Vice President of a flood zone determination firm. He was elected as a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 2005. Cotter was recognized for his achievements and leadership skills in 2018 when he received the Presidential Rank Award (Distinguished), the Nation's highest award for career members of the Senior Executive Service.
Christina Bapst-Stump
Christina Bapst-Stump is a Senior Advisor for the Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate Office of Science and Engineering. She has also served various organizations and efforts within the Department, including the National Information Exchange Model, where she set the strategic vision for the program as well as oversaw operational functions, communications, and outreach. Her previous experience includes Robbins-Gioia, ExxonMobil Corporation, and General Electric, Corporate Research and Development. She has a Master of Business Administration from The George Washington University and a Bachelor of Science in Management from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.
Ann Lesperance
Ann Lesperance is the Director of the Northwest Regional Technology Center at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). She has over 30 years of experience as a researcher and project manager, and her primary focus is developing regional programs to accelerate the demonstration and deployment of new homeland security technologies. Lesperance works with state and local emergency responders and public safety officials and builds regional coalitions of emergency management professionals to understand and help prioritize their operational needs and requirements. Lesperance also has a joint appointment as the Director for the College of Social Science and Humanities Programs at Northeastern University Seattle. In this role, she leads efforts to build the Master’s program in Security and Resilience Studies and Urban Informatics.
Rachel A. Bartholomew
Rachel Bartholomew is a Science and Policy Advisor and team lead in the Chemical and Biological Signatures Group at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). She has over two decades of experience applying molecular biology to address national security, policy, and nonproliferation challenges. She has served as principal investigator and project manager for a variety of sponsors, including Departments of Homeland Security, Energy, State, and Defense, engaging with a range of domestic and international stakeholders, such as first responders, law enforcement, customs and border personnel, policymakers, and scientific subject matter experts. In 2023, Bartholomew was named Deputy Director for the Northwest Regional Technology Center, a virtual resource operated by PNNL to support local and regional preparedness, resiliency, response, and recovery. Concurrently, she is the Principal Investigator on projects exploring first-responder technology, emergency management, and emergency operations centers of the future. These efforts are leveraging her decades of experience building relationships and connecting with the first responder community to capture and translate their technical requirements into research and solutions. She received her BA in biology from Case Western Reserve University and PhD in animal physiology from Cornell University, where she was a National Science Foundation pre-doctoral Fellow. Her post-doctoral training was completed at the FBI Laboratory’s Counterterrorism and Forensic Science Research Unit.
