What Level of Ugly Are Communities Prepared For?

In the wake of the recent assassination attempt on Former President Donald Trump and the upcoming presidential election, the United States stands at a critical juncture. As an emergency manager at the state or local level, the task of ensuring public safety amid potential civil disobedience, civil unrest, tactical ultra-violence, and home-grown terrorism is both daunting and urgent. The events in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024, highlight the pressing need for a shared interagency planning effort that fosters enhanced interoperability and a common operational picture during periods of heightened domestic tension.

This article examines the importance of such planning, current challenges, and actionable suggestions to better prepare for the uncertain times ahead. This article references a current incident with an ongoing investigation. Information may change based on new findings or as investigators release additional information to the public. However, this should not detract from the article’s overall preparedness focus.

Interagency planning and enhanced interoperability are crucial in managing incidents and events effectively. In an era where threats can escalate rapidly, seamless coordination among agencies ensures that resources are utilized efficiently, information is shared promptly, and decisions are based on a comprehensive understanding of the situation. A common operational picture offers stakeholders a unified view of the incident or event, facilitating timely and informed decision-making. Remember that Benjamin Franklin once said, “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”

The attempted assassination highlights the need for proper planning and interoperability. The seeming lack of coordination between the United States Secret Service and state and local law enforcement agencies contributed to miscommunication and confusion. It has been widely reported in the media and by House Homeland Security Chair Mark Green, who visited the incident site on July 22, 2024,  that Secret Service agents did not attend a pre-event briefing with local law enforcement and that state and local law enforcement representatives were not permitted in the Secret Service command post during the event. Such shortcomings can exacerbate the impact of crises, leading to increased casualties, property damage, and public distrust.

Analyzing the Attempted Assassination of Former President Trump

This incident is an ideal case study for understanding emergency managers’ challenges. On July 13, 2024, a political rally turned violent with an assassination attempt on Former President Trump. While the crowd remained unusually calm, and there were no significant injuries from a widespread panic, Trump was wounded, another attendee, a former fire chief from a local community, was killed, and two other attendees were critically wounded.

Several planning steps are required to help avoid catastrophe. These include:

• Unified Command Structure – Although required by Homeland Security Presidential Directive-5, incidents in which multiple agencies operate independently without a clear command structure can create conflicting actions and strategies. Being in the same room does not mean that an effective unified command has been established. In the National Incident Management System, the unified command is a team effort that allows agencies with geographic or functional responsibility for an incident to actively participate in the process. This includes establishing a common set of incident objectives, jointly determining strategies to accomplish those objectives, and determining resource requirements. As multi-jurisdictional incidents and events become more complex, the need for an effective unified command increases.
• Communication Channels – Communication breakdowns can hinder the timely flow of critical information, causing delays in response times and uncoordinated efforts. Effective and efficient incident management relies on communicating clearly and rapidly across multi-jurisdictional and multi-agency lines to deliver timely, relevant, and actionable information. In 2005, New Jersey Governor Thomas Kean commented that:

It is a scandal in our minds that four years after 9-11, we have not yet set aside radio spectrum to [ensure] that police, firefighters, and emergency medical technicians can communicate reliably during any kind of attack or any kind of major disaster.

• Resource Allocation – When resources are inadequate for the task at hand, it leads to gaps in coverage and delayed assistance. A robust planning effort before and throughout the incident or event can support effective resource allocation, task assignment, and coordination. It facilitates systematic management of personnel, resources, equipment, capabilities, and facilities to accomplish operational and management objectives.
• Common Operational Picture – Without a common operational picture, decision-makers cannot have a comprehensive view of an unfolding situation, resulting in reactive rather than proactive measures. A shared, comprehensive common operational picture supports active, informed, and timely decision-making that facilitates operational success.

Preparing for the Upcoming Election

As the nation approaches the upcoming election, the potential for civil unrest and violence at planned events and spontaneous gatherings remains high. The Democratic Convention in Chicago in 1968 was extremely violent. The political climate is charged, and the recent assassination attempt has heightened tensions. Adding Chicago’s high incidence of gun violence creates a mix of what emergency managers and elected officials might call “ugly.” Following are some proactive steps that emergency managers and public safety professionals can take before, during, and after the election to ensure preparedness and resilience.

Before the Election

• Enhanced Training and Drills – Conduct joint training and exercises involving all relevant agencies to simulate potential scenarios. These drills should focus on establishing a unified command structure, improving communication protocols, and testing interoperability.
• Robust Intelligence Sharing – Establish a real-time intelligence-sharing framework among federal, state, local, and tribal agencies. Also, consider if and where the private sector and non-governmental agencies should be included in this information sharing. Dedicate resources to monitoring social media and other platforms for early warning signs of unrest.
• Community Engagement – Foster trust and communication with community leaders and organizations, especially those actively planning the myriad political rallies over the next hundred days. Engaging with the community can help de-escalate tensions and provide valuable insights into potential flashpoints.

After the Winner Is Declared

As the elections of 2000 and 2020 showed us, this may not be election night. Considering options before the winner is declared can pay significant long-term benefits. These can include:

• Rapid Deployment Teams – Create specialized rapid deployment teams equipped to respond to civil unrest. These teams should train for crowd control, de-escalation techniques, and emergency medical response.
• Continuous Monitoring and Adaptation – Maintain a vigilant watch on evolving situations and adapt response plans accordingly. Flexibility and agility in response strategies are crucial during this period of heightened uncertainty.
• Public Information Campaigns – Develop clear and consistent messaging to inform the public about safety measures, legal consequences of violent actions, and ways to stay safe. Transparent communication can help reduce panic and misinformation.

Beyond Inauguration Day

The period following the inauguration is equally critical. Regardless of the election outcome, there is potential for continued unrest. It is imperative to remain vigilant and prepared for any eventuality.

• Strengthened Partnerships – Continue to build and maintain partnerships with federal agencies, neighboring jurisdictions, and private sector entities. These collaborations enhance resource availability and support.
• Long-Term Resilience Planning – Incidents of civil unrest have been increasing in recent years. Although typically more in the purview of elected officials rather than emergency managers, there is a need to consider long-term resilience by investing in community-based programs that address underlying political, social, and economic issues contributing to unrest. Programs to improve education, employment, and social cohesion can potentially mitigate some causes of violence.
• Post-Incident Analysis and Improvement – After any incident, conduct thorough after-action reviews to identify strengths and areas for improvement. Follow-through on improvement plans is equally critical. Implementing lessons learned is essential for continuous improvement and future preparedness.

The assassination attempt and the upcoming election present significant challenges. The Butler, Pennsylvania incident underscores the need for a shared interagency planning effort that fosters enhanced interoperability and a common operational picture that supports informed decision-making. By appropriately planning before an event and adopting proactive measures, emergency managers can better prepare for potential civil unrest and violence.

The key to effective crisis management lies in collaboration, communication, and continuous improvement. While navigating these turbulent times, the role of emergency managers is more critical than ever. Working together and leveraging the strengths of each agency can ensure a safer and more resilient future for communities.

Actionable suggestions for emergency managers include:

• Develop Comprehensive Interagency Plans – Create detailed plans that outline the roles and responsibilities of each agency, establish a unified command structure, and define communication protocols. Regularly update and test these plans to ensure they remain effective. Ensure agencies identified in these interagency plans are involved in the planning efforts to ensure they are aware of duties, responsibilities, and expectations.
• Invest in Technology and Infrastructure – Utilize advanced technologies such as GIS mapping, real-time data analytics, and interoperable communication systems to enhance shared situational awareness that fosters active, engaged, and timely decision-making.
• Promote Interagency Training and Exercises – Facilitate regular joint training opportunities and challenging interagency exercises to build trust, improve coordination, validate capabilities, and identify potential gaps in response plans.
• Engage with the Community – Establish open lines of communication with community leaders and organizations. Involve them in planning efforts and provide them with the tools and resources to assist in crisis response.
• Implement a Continuous Improvement Process – After each incident, conduct thorough after-action reviews, gather feedback from all stakeholders, implement improvement plans, and update plans and protocols accordingly. Continuously seek opportunities for improvement and innovation.
• Effective Partnerships – Active and engaged relationships are the foundation of effective organizational partnerships. In an e-mail to the author on July 19, 2024, Jim Overman, retired manager of Environmental, Safety, and Security for the Dow Chemical Company in Freeport, Texas, shared a reminder, “Unified command is much more than just having commanders in the same room. It is a shared responsibility for meeting shared objectives.”

By taking these steps, emergency managers can enhance their preparedness and resilience in the face of civil disobedience, civil unrest, tactical ultra-violence, and home-grown terrorism. The road ahead will be challenging, but with a coordinated and proactive approach, emergency managers and public safety professionals can navigate these turbulent times and improve the safety and well-being of communities.